US More Reliant on EU for Key Imports Than China, New Study Finds, as German Trade Surplus with America Hits a Low

A new analysis reveals that the United States’ dependence on imports from the European Union has grown significantly, surpassing its reliance on China for thousands of critical products. However, this finding comes as new data shows Germany’s trade surplus with the U.S. has fallen to its lowest point in four years, painting a complex picture of the transatlantic economic relationship.

A Deep-Rooted Dependency on European Goods

According to a study by the German Economic Institute (IW), the U.S. is more dependent on imports from the European Union than from China. The research highlights that in 2024, the U.S. sourced at least half of its imports from the EU across more than 3,100 product categories, with a total value of approximately $290 billion. These goods are concentrated in key industrial sectors, including chemicals, machinery, equipment, and electrical engineering products.

The IW study emphasizes the depth of this trade relationship, stating that “U.S. import dependency on the EU has increased sharply since 2010.” The institute found that nearly 46% of all American imports from the EU consist of products for which Europe would be difficult to replace. This $290 billion in high-dependency goods accounts for almost half of the total U.S. import volume from the EU, which stood at $618 billion.

When compared to China, the EU’s strategic importance becomes even clearer. The EU leads China in both the number of high-dependency product groups (3,100 for the EU vs. 2,925 for China) and their total value ($290 billion vs. $247 billion). The institute suggests this data points to a significant decrease in U.S. reliance on Chinese suppliers.

Industry Criticizes New US-EU Tariff Agreement

This economic leverage is central to a brewing controversy over a recent tariff agreement negotiated by U.S. President Donald Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which established a basic tariff of 15% on most EU imports. German industry leaders have sharply criticized the deal. The Federation of German Industries (BDI) called the agreement an “inadequate compromise” that “sends a fatal signal to the closely intertwined economies on both sides of the Atlantic.”

Echoing this sentiment, the Mechanical Engineering Industry Association (VDMA) has called on the EU Commission to renegotiate, arguing that painful tariffs were accepted too easily. “The U.S. has few alternatives to the EU for numerous key products,” noted IW expert Samina Sultan. “Many goods cannot be replaced in the short term. Europe therefore has every reason to meet threats from Washington with more self-confidence.”

Germany’s Trade Surplus with the U.S. Shrinks

Despite the evidence of U.S. dependency, Germany’s trade dynamics with the United States are shifting. According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), Germany’s trade surplus with the U.S. for the first seven months of 2025 fell by 15.1% year-over-year to €34.6 billion ($37.5 billion). This marks the lowest level for this period since 2021.

The shrinking surplus is the result of a two-way trend: German exports to the United States fell by 5.3% to €89.9 billion, while imports from the U.S. to Germany simultaneously rose by 2.2% to €55.3 billion. While the U.S. remains the trading partner with which Germany holds its largest surplus, the gap is closing. The surplus with second-ranked France is now just €4.2 billion smaller, a significant reduction from the €10.3 billion gap recorded in the same period last year.

A Wider Shift in Global Trade Flows

This trend is part of a broader realignment in Germany’s global trade. From January to July 2025, the country’s export surpluses also saw significant declines with Mexico (-32.6%), Italy (-19.5%), and Canada (-41.0%).

At the same time, Germany’s trade deficits (import surpluses) with other nations have expanded dramatically. The deficit with the People’s Republic of China surged by 54.1% compared to the previous year, reaching €47.7 billion—just shy of the record set in 2022. Significant increases in trade deficits were also recorded with Vietnam (+28.4%), Hungary (+141.8%), and the Czech Republic (+36.7%), signaling a major rebalancing of Germany’s international commerce.